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04/20/2024 03:07:50 am

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Earthquake Swarm Increases Chance of Big California Earthquake

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(Photo : USGS) The dangerous San Andreas Fault.

Scientists are bracing for what they fear could be a major earthquake at the southern end of the San Andreas Fault in southern California until next week. This, after a record-setting swarm of over 200 earthquakes was recorded over a 24 hour period at the Salton Sea on Sept. 26 and 27.

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Seismometers detected a rapid succession of small earthquakes near Bombay Beach for over 24 hours. More than 200 earthquakes were recorded before the swarm began to fade.

Scientists said this was only the third time the area had seen a swarm like this since earthquake sensors were installed here in 1932. They noted this cluster had more earthquakes than the swarms of 2001 and 2009.

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimates the likelihood of a magnitude 7 or greater earthquake being triggered is as high as 1 in 100 over the next seven days, though the odds drop as time goes on.

Scientists said major earthquakes occur in Southern California about once every 150 or 200 years. The last big quake at the Salton Sea end of the San Andreas Fault was 330 years ago

"When there's significant seismicity in this area of the fault, we kind of wonder if (the San Andreas) is somehow going to go active," said Caltech seismologist Egill Hauksson.

"So maybe one of those small earthquakes that's happening in the neighborhood of the fault is going to trigger it, and set off the big event."

The quakes occurred in one of California's most seismically complex areas. Specifically, they hit in a seismic zone consisting of a web of faults just south of where the San Andreas Fault ends. Scientists fear this web might one day rouse the nearby San Andreas Fault, triggering The Next Big One.

A San Andreas earthquake starting at the Salton Sea has long been a major concern for scientists. USGS researchers in 2008 simulated what would happen if a magnitude 7.8 earthquake started at the Salton Sea and then thundered up the San Andreas Fault, sending out shaking waves in all directions.

Los Angeles could feel shaking for a minute and shaking waves might reach as far as Bakersfield, Oxnard and Santa Barbara. About 1,600 fires could spread across Southern California.

The simulation predicted powerful aftershocks larger than magnitude 7 could level the region, sending shaking into San Diego County and into the San Gabriel Valley.

It shows a death toll of some 1,800 people, 50,000 injuries and $200 billion in damage.

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