CHINA TOPIX

04/23/2024 09:21:30 am

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The World is Running Out of Chocolates, and China’s Appetite is Growing

A bowl of chocolate truffles

(Photo : Wikimedia Commons)

Should millions of chocolate lovers around the world push the panic button? Two manufacturers of this favorite dessert item warned about the looming shortage as demand for chocolates keeps going up, while supply of cocoa - the key ingredient - is dwindling.

Mars and Barry Callebaut, two of the biggest chocolate makers in the world, cited that in 2013, the deficit between cocoa production and chocolate consumption was about 70,000 metric tons of cocoa.

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But in a matter of 16 years, the gap could multiply 14-fold to one million metric tons and after another 10 years, or by 2030, the deficit would be an alarming two million metric tons of cocoa, Washington Post reports.

Drought and fungal infections are the two culprits behind the declining production of cocoa, which is 70 percent sourced from the Ivory Coast and Ghana that have both suffered from prolonged dry weather.

Meanwhile, the frosty pod, a fungal disease, caused the loss from 30 percent to 40 percent of cocoa production across the world, according to estimates by the International Cocoa Organization.

Another factor that would hike the demand for cocoa is that more people are buying dark chocolate, which uses more cocoa to produce. An average chocolate bar has about 10 percent cocoa content, while dark chocolates have 70 percent or more.

Although the world has noticed the growing Chinese appetite for chocolates (as well as for properties overseas), their chocolate consumption still pales in comparison to western Europeans. In the last 10 years, chocolate sales in China grew by more than 100 percent, while total chocolate confectionary sales in 2010 reached $1.5 billion.

While there are possible options to address the shortage problem such as the development of cocoa trees in central Africa that could produce seven-fold the current production volume, there could possibly be a trade-off in terms of taste.

Finally, because of the situation, the law of supply and demand would apply even to the most sinful of chocolate bars that prices are also going up, with Hershey's the first to adjust its price tag upwards, while other chocolate makers have also increased their prices.


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