CHINA TOPIX

03/28/2024 05:49:24 am

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Stock Analyst Predicts Repeat of Chinese Stock Boom to Bust Cycle

China Stock Market

(Photo : Photo by ChinaFotoPress/ChinaFotoPress via Getty Images) A new survey has revealed that investor confidence may once again be returning to China's stock market after a rapid fall in prices in recent months.

A stock analyst based in Bangkok predicted over the weekend that Chinese stocks will experience a rally in the last quarter of 2015 and that the Shanghai Index may reach over 4,000 but can drop by as much as half by early next year.

Two months ago, the same analyst said that the Chinese stock rally at that time would not stop the stocks from falling further and later events proved him right.

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Bloomberg reported that Chart Partners Group head Thomas Schroeder believes that in the final months of 2015, stock prices in the China market will rise. However, by next year, that gain will be wiped out.

Schroeder's credentials include working for the UBS group as head technical analyst for Asia some time ago. He based his new prediction on the triangle-wedge pattern analysis, one of the tools used in the technical analysis of stocks.

In June of this year, the Chinese stock market suffered its worst decline compared to other global stock markets, losing almost 30 percent of its value in the span of three months. The reason for its huge decline was due to the weakening economy and the widespread practice of using loans to purchase stocks in the hope that they could be sold for a higher price in the near future.

Schroeder said this time, stocks in China's market will rise because the money of emerging economies will grow in strength and also the oil market will show more signs of stability. The good news will make investors feel good about China's stock market again. However, that rally will not last for long as the Federal Reserve in the United States will implement interest rate hikes.

The Chart Partners Director has acquired the reputation for having a knack about when to get in and pull out of the Chinese stock market. Before the June crash, Schroeder anticipated the slump, getting out of the market as early as April.

In August, he announced that the Chinese stocks will again fall even if the Shanghai Index was regaining some of its value back. Weeks after the announcement, the Chinese stocks resumed its downward descent.

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