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03/29/2024 05:05:52 am

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Scientists Forecast Floods, War and Dwindling Water Supply in China

A grim forecast

(Photo : Getty Images/ChinaFotoPress) Receding floodwaters reveal the damage left in the wake of rainstorms over Nanjiang, China, in this photo taken last June. The latest government report on climate change urges Beijing to be more flexible in negotiations at the Paris climate summit this week.

Chinese scientists have forecast massive coastal floods, killer typhoons, cross-border wars and dwindling water supplies in the country in the future as the effects of climate change becomes more apparent in the years to come. 

Some 550 state-appointed climate experts prepared the report that offers an almost apocalyptic glimpse into the future of China ahead of crucial climate negotiations in Paris this week. 

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The 900-page report has been made available to the public by China's Ministry of Science and Technology.. 

Beijing has undertaken three climate-related assessments of its environment over the past nine years. The findings of the government's third evaluation suggests that China's future will be burdened by problems on two fronts: a hostile natural environment and an equally belligerent international community.

Compelling hints of this future have already become apparent. The waters off China's coast have been rising faster than the global average. Scientific estimates have varied, but some forecasts indicate the sea off eastern China rising by as much as 24 inches by the end of the end of the century. 

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA), meanwhile, reports that China produces and consumes nearly as much coal as the rest of the world combined.  The countryis allegedly the single largest contributor of greenhouse gasses in the earth's atmosphere.

The Chinese government has subsequently come under increasing pressure from the US and the European Union (EU), which have urged the country to reconsider its policies on carbon emissions and the environment. 

President Xi Jinping will be present during the opening of the United Nations 21st Conference of Parties (COP21) in Paris this week.  He is expected to defend China's previous position in the negotiations.  That is, that China is still a poor country, and should not be subjected to the same greenhouse gas restrictions imposed on more developed economies, according to the New York Times.

How successfully China will be able to defend this stance over the long-term remains to be seen. 

"There's deepening awareness of the gravity of the problems," says Professor Zhang Haibin of Peking University. Zhang was among those who prepared the report, which urges Beijing to be more flexible in the negotiations.

Chinese authorities have taken steps to reduce the country's carbon emissions over the past few years, including investing billions into clean technologies and alternative energy sources.  The investments have paid off.  A report by Greenpeace reveals that reductions in China's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions last year alone was equal to the total CO2 emissions of the UK over four months.  But Chinese scientists and climate experts say the country can -- and should -- do more. 

"New arrangements in global climate governance are unavoidable," the report says. "China should confront the vagueness of its role and change."

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