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03/28/2024 04:33:48 pm

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Climate Change Talks: Good News? Carbon Emissions Already Declining This Year

A new Stanford-led study finds that global fossil-fuel emissions, like the carbon dioxide emitted from this natural gas flare at a North Dakota oil well, could show a decline this year.

(Photo : Rob Jackson/Stanford University) A new Stanford-led study finds that global fossil-fuel emissions, like the carbon dioxide emitted from this natural gas flare at a North Dakota oil well, could show a decline this year.

A new study presented at the UN Climate Change Conference reveals how for the first time ever, there will be a trend in declining levels of carbon dioxide emissions around the world. In 2014, global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels just grew by 0.6 percent were it is predicted to drop in 2015.

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According to lead author of the study, Earth system science professor, Rob Jackson of Stanford University, carbon dioxide emissions were lessened during economic recession and this event would be the first decline during a time when global economies are growing fast.

Global greenhouse gas emissions have risen at 2.4 percent every year since 2000, where nations such as China and India relied on coal and fossil fuels to boost their economies. However, in this new study, this slowdown of emissions can be linked to a recent decrease of coal usage in China which is a nation responsible for 27 percent of global carbon emissions. 

According to Corinne Le Quere of the the University of East Anglia, U.K., this slowing of global emissions can be sustained depending on the usage of coal in China and in other nations or where new energy will originate. More than half of new energy in China now come from renewable sources such as water, wind, nuclear and solar power.

According to the  U.S. Energy Information Administration, there was indeed a drop in coal consumption in 2014 by coal based industries in China among steel, cement, and fertilizer factories, resulting in overall coal production dropping dramatically. 

China is currently recovering from a slow economic growth that can be attributed to this decrease in coal related emissions however for India, the nation is planning to double its coal burning output to supply power where carbon emissions growth will likely resume to increase in the next few years.

According to climate scientist Kevin Trenberth from the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, the important thing here is to completely stop emissions to zero emissions and not just lower the rate of growing carbon emissions globally. Carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere can dictate climate change and these will grow continuously when emissions are positive.

In early 2015, carbon dioxide concentrations were measured at 400 parts per million which is the highest ever recorded in over 650,000 years. Scientists believe that if these man made carbon emissions will be cut dramatically, carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere will drop even before temperatures go beyond the 2 degrees Celsius tipping point. 

India is currently the fourth largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in 2014 where the country spewed as much as China in 1990 however, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi revealed that the nation's target this year is to produce an output of 1.5 billion tons of total coal by 2020 to fuel more domestic power production, making India the largest coal consumer in the next few years, leading to a rise in carbon emissions.

According to Le Quere, basic energy needs of developing economies still rely primarily on coal where these emissions will decrease modestly for industrial nations at best. This new study is published in the journal Nature Climate Change. 

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