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04/25/2024 11:19:34 am

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Mega Earthquake and Tsunami to Strike Hawaii in Next 50 Years

The only well-documented paleotsunami deposit in Hawai'i from the 16th century is on Kaua`i. The Makauwahi sinkhole, on the side of a hardened sand dune, is viewed toward the southeast from an apparent altitude of 342 m. Inset photos show two of the wall

(Photo : R. Butler (left), Gerard Fryer (right), GoogleMaps (background). Figure from Butler et al., 2014.) The only well-documented paleotsunami deposit in Hawai'i from the 16th century is on Kaua`i. The Makauwahi sinkhole, on the side of a hardened sand dune, is viewed toward the southeast from an apparent altitude of 342 m. Inset photos show two of the wall edges, indicating the edges of the sinkhole.

A new study reveals a prediction of a massive 9.0 magnitude earthquake that will strike the Aleutian Islands within 50 years. The Aleutians are located in between Alaska and Russia in the Pacific Ocean, as scientists discovered new evidence of a devastating "paleotsunami" that hit Makauwahi, which is the southern region of Kauai. 

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Some 500 years ago, a colossal tsunami hit Hawaii that was triggered by a destructive 9.0 magnitude earthquake from the coast of the Aleutians near Alaska. Scientists then recovered evidence of a giant sinkhole and a cave, indicating that this tsunami generated 30 feet high waves.

This type of calamity would leave Hawaii destroyed, as its economy along with infrastructure, coastal populations would be left in ruins. According to University of Hawaii's School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST)  geophysicist Rhett Butler and his team, this type of devastating earthquake and tsunami are most likely to appear again in the Aleutians in 50 years, affecting Hawaii as well. 

During this new study, researchers were able to study plate convergence rates and the length of fault lines crossing these regions. Researchers calculated data and revealed that there is a six to 12 percent chances of this earthquake occurring among the Aleutians, triggering this mega tsunami, that can devastate the state of Hawaii. An estimated US $40 billion in damages and some 400,000 residents will be affected by this tsunami.

To validate the data for this new model, researchers were able to analyze the five biggest tsunamis in the world since 1900. Geological samples were also examined from the sinkhole that was discovered in the Aleutians. Researchers are now ready to present these findings to Hawaiian local officials to take the necessary precautions before this tsunami threat, also taking into consideration smaller quakes and tremors that are threatening the Pacific region near Alaska and Hawaii. 

Scientists consider this mega earthquake and tsunami an impending event with serious implications. However, existing tsunami warnings in Hawaii will still remain the same, although a larger evacuation plan should be able to accommodate more people. Researchers call this the Great Aleutian Tsunami where they aim to coordinate and devise inundation maps with local Civil Defense officials.

This new study is published in in the Journal of Geophysical Research. 

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