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04/20/2024 06:05:43 am

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Restive Pavlof Volcano in Alaska set to Erupt this Year but When?

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(Photo : USGS) Pavlof volcano erupting in March 2016

There's a pretty good chance Alaska's hyperactive and unpredictable Pavlof Volcano will erupt again. The only question is will this eruption occur by the end of this year or much sooner, as in the next few weeks.

The seismically very active stratovolcano located at the Alaskan Peninsula has erupted 10 times from 1980 until this March. Pavlof Volcano or Mount Pavlof has a threat score of 95, meaning the threat from future eruptions is considered high.

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Pavlof is some seven miles in diameter and is located 592 miles southwest of Anchorage.

During its last eruption on March 27, Pavlof hurled an ash plume 37,000 feet into the atmosphere, said the Alaska Volcano Observatory. The unexpected eruption forced air flights to either be cancelled or re-routed to avoid the ash cloud. No one was killed in this eruption. The volcano stopped emitting sh clouds on March 31.

The observatory described Pavlof as one of the most consistently active volcanoes in the Aleutian Arc. Past Pavlof eruptions have ash plumes as high as 49,000 feet.

Pavlof is constantly monitored by the observatory, which is a joint program of the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the Geophysical Institute of the University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAFGI) and the State of Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys (ADGGS).

Seismologists noted Pavlof emitting a steam plume on July 1 and showing signs of increased seismic activity. This activity caused them to raise the volcano alert level from "normal" to "advisory."

They said Pavlof's current activity doesn't necessarily mean there will be an eruption but noted it's what the start of an eruption can look like. They'll now wait for tremors that grow stronger or last longer using satellites and other monitoring equipment.

"Pavlof is one of those volcanoes that can erupt without very much in the way of precursory activities," said geophysicist Dave Schneider, who noted this behavior is normal for Pavlof.

"It's very easy for the magma to arise in the volcano and make it out. So even subtle signs of unrest we think it is prudent to increase our alert level."

An eruption, however, might occur with little to no warning so scientists are monitoring the volcano very closely.

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