Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's shift to China as part of his pursuit of independent foreign policy has reportedly shaken the long-standing US-Philippine alliance and could significantly weaken the influence of the US in Asia and the South China Sea region.

A study conducted by debt watcher, Fitch Ratings BMI Research, said Duterte's shift from US towards China foreign policy should not be underestimated as this could damage Washington's "pivot to Asia" foreign policy at a time when tensions are running high between Beijing and its neighbors.

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"Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's apparent foreign policy shift away from the US towards China could substantially undermine Washington's geopolitical influence in Asia at a time when tensions between Beijing and its neighbors are rising," the study, published on Sept. 30, said.

Regional security partner

The study, titled "Duterte's Foreign Policy Shift to Undermine US' Geopolitical Influence," said without Duterte's cooperation, US and Japan may turn to Vietnam and will try to nurture Hanoi as a major regional security partner in the disputed South China Sea region.

As Duterte continues to "rebalance" its foreign policy away from the US and towards China, its latest shift is seen as benefiting China alone, the superpower Manila brought to court for a territorial case filed in 2013, the study said.

The arbitral court handed down a ruling last July 12 in a case filed by the Philippines against China over territorial issues in South China Sea. It rejected the latter's massive claims over the disputed waters following its nine-dash rule.

US-Philippine Alliance

The ruling, favoring the claims of the Philippines, has been rejected and dismissed by China as "illegal" and "null and void."

"A major geopolitical shift in Asia appears to have begun in mid-2016, when Rodrigo Duterte became president of the Philippines, and this will undermine the US' position to the benefit of China," the BMI Research said.

While former President Benigno Aquino III sealed its alliance with US and Japan under his term, the two countries, wary of the increasing military power of China, may experience a different thing under Duterte's administration. Philippines has moved away from the US and has started mending ties and cozying up to Beijing, which has welcomed him with open arms.

Geopolitical importance

"This suggests that the Philippines' presence in an informal US-led bloc of Asian nations aimed at counter-balancing China's rise is no longer assured," according to BMI Research.

The report said the Philippines has gained geopolitical importance given its strategic location in major global commercial shipping routes between the Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea.

It further added that the US has long recognized the Philippines' strategic significance during the 1898 Spanish-American war.

EDCA

Even after the American rule ended in 1946, the US has maintained close ties with Manila and as proof to that, then President Aquino signed a 10-year Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with Washington in 2014.

Duterte has questioned the validity of several Philippine military treaties with the US, such as the EDCA, VFA and the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty, saying the treaties were not signed by Aquino or himself.

The study said that for as long as Manila continues to shift to Beijing, China will continue to build on reefs and shoals on the disputed sea.

"China will most likely continue to consolidate its position in the South China Sea through the construction of artificial islands capable of housing military facilities, and most probably by declaring an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the sea in the near future," the report stated.

Duterte earlier has declared that the ongoing US-Philippine military exercises in Manila will already be the last since "China doesn't want it."

He also announced that Philippine troops will not join the US forces in its patrols in the South China Sea under the freedom of navigation principle because he did not want his troops to be involved in a "hostile act" with China. 

Tagsindependent foreign policy, US, china, geopolitical influence, pivot to Asia, Fitch Ratings BMI Research, President Rodrigo Duterte