Despite some advantages enjoyed by potential Republican presidential candidates Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio such as past statewide victories, established political connections and Spanish language facility, neither of the two are guaranteed victories in Florida.

According to the Miami Herald, based on a historical approach, Bush appears to be the safest bet to win the party nomination since he has financial resources and widespread support in the party. He also has a good understanding of the state voters since he had delivered it for his father and brother and likely himself in seven out of nine election cycles from 1988 through 2004.

Like Us on Facebook

John Morgan, leading Democratic fundraiser, said Jeb is more difficult to beat them Rubio since Bush is reasonable and compassionate, and he is running as a general election candidate in the primary.

However, Republican consultant Brian Hughes, who apparently is not working for Rubio or Bush, points out that "any candidate regardless of their connection to Florida has to fight for it to win here." It's because Florida is big, diverse, has a lot of media markets and like four states in one. "Florida makes you work for it," he points out.

Because of Florida's fast pace and constant growth, statewide candidates must always introduce themselves.

In the case of Bush, although he won two gubernatorial elections by large margins of almost 11 percent in 1998 and 13 percent in 2002, only 28 percent of the currently active voters in the state took part in Bush's last two elections and only 13 percent of the current registered voters are Republicans who cast their ballot in favor of Bush in the 1998 and 2002 gubernatorial elections.

Joshua Karp of the Florida Democratic Party added that because of the big change in the composition of state voters, only 18 percent current registered voters had ever voted for Bush. He adds that neither Bush nor Rubio ever run in a presidential election year when Democratic turnout is higher compared to off-year elections.

Karp noted Obama narrowly won in Florida in 2008 and 2012 even if he ran the biggest and best-funded campaigns in the state. The difficult victory for Obama against GOP candidate Mitt Romney who antagonized Hispanic voters, nevertheless, suggest a Republican win for Florida's 29 electoral votes.

TagsJeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Florida, 2016 presidential elections