Taiwan will strengthen its ties with the United States, Europe and Japan in the coming years, diverting the island's reliance on trade with China toward a larger pool of partners in the international community, according to a report issued recently by a US-based risk analysis organization.

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The respected policy analysis and advisory organization Global Risk Insights (GRI) issued a report on Monday that says Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen is likely to move toward a reversal of the island's progress toward a union with China.

"Instead of courting China, Tsai wants Taiwan to break away and 'craft a model of new Asian values in Taiwan' and interact with 'like-minded democracies' like the US and Japan," the report says, referring to a speech Tsai delivered before an audience of diplomats last September.

Anywhere but China

Tsai's economic policy emphasizes innovation over efficiency.  This economic protocol -- if successfully implemented -- will reduce Taiwan's reliance on China, where some 40 percent of the island's exports currently go, says the report.

The report notes that Taiwan's president-elect has already expressed her desire to negotiate with the US over Taiwan's eligibility to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement. 

"It is in our national interest to have strong and healthy relationships here by expanding our economic and cultural ties, and engage in dialogue on regional security and economic integration,  such as joining the TPP,"  said Tsai in September. "Mutual trust, respect and communication will form the three pillars of these relationships."

The GRI report -- entitled, "Tsai's dynasty: Taiwan's new approach to China" --  suggests that such a move would be consistent with the objectives of Tsai's "Southbound Policy," which involves direct investments in the countries that comprise the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and India.

"North, south, east, west, Tsai is looking for new opportunities," the report observes, "anywhere but China"  

"Just an Option"

The GRI report also highlighted Tsai's ambiguity toward the "One China" policy, and says she is unlikely to shed more light on her views on the issue.  Given the convincing margin of her election victory, there is little pressure on her to do so, the report says.

The controversial policy -- also called the "1992 Consensus" -- is based on agreement that holds both Beijing and Taipei to the principle that there is only one China.  The accord, however, allows both sides the freedom to interpret that idea as they see fit.

"Having helped Lee Teng-hui articulate the pro-independence 'state-to-state relations' narrative in [the] 1990s, Tsai is probably more radical at heart," says the report. 

Tsai has in the past insisted that the 1992 consensus -- and the "One China" policy it upholds -- imposes a limit on Taiwan's choices for the future. 

She argues against this limitation, and has repeatedly stressed that the "status quo" she seeks is one that ensures "the options of the Taiwanese people."

"The 1992 Consensus is just an option," Tsai said, "but not the only one." 

TagsChina-Taiwan relations, Taiwan President-elect Tsai lng-wen, One China principle