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05/04/2024 01:38:33 pm

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'Megadrought' Could Happen in U.S. Southwest

Southwest US

Grand Canyon National Park in the U.S. Southwest

Scientists from Cornell University are warning the public that a megadrought might occur in the southwestern United States because of global warming.

The chances at this megadrought occuring is at 20 to 50 percent over the next 100 years, according to a study conducted by Cornell, the University of Arizona, and USGS. A drought spell becomes a megadrought if it lasts over 30 years.

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The study was called Assessing the Risk of Persistent Drought Using Climate Model Simulations and Paleoclimate Data and was funded by the National Science Foundation, National Center for Atmospheric Research, the U.S. Geological Survey and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Toby Ault, assistant professor of earth and athmospheric sciences from Cornell and lead author, said that the continuing addition of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere could lead to a megadrought.

He said that as of mid-August most of California has been experiencing exceptional drought, while Oregon, Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas have moderate to exceptional drought.

The study said climatologists still can't determine how long this kind of drought could continue, but with the ongoing climate change he believes that people are catching a glimpse of things to come.

The suggestion is that authorities from west and southwest America should now be looking for mitigation strategies to cope with the probable megadrought conditions.

He said that this megadrought will be worse than anything seen during the last 2,000 years and may pose unprecedented challenges to water resources.

Ault also explained that with increase in the temperature drought, severity will worsen. The team believes that their results showed a very serious problem that must be considered with utmost importance.

Julia Cole, one of the researchers, explained that the results can help authorities take a long view at how alarming the drought risk in the southwest could be, and should open up new discussion on the subject of water conservation.

The study will be published in a forthcoming issue of the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate.

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