With elections just hours away, crucial economic issues have come to dominate political discourse in Taiwan, and -- as always -- the key question for both candidates and voters alike is whether Taiwan's economic future lies in closer ties with China or an autonomous national identity.

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If elections were decided by opinion polls, then opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen would have already been swept to power several times during the campaign period.

The polls also indicate that Tsai's party is likely to dominate Taiwan's Legislative Yuan for the first time, which would allow the DPP to pursue its policies virtually unfettered by any opposition within Taiwan's legislature.

Throughout her campaign, Tsai has criticized the incumbent Koumintang (KMT) for Taiwan's economic woes, insisting that President Ma Ying-jeou has not done enough to protect the island's enterprises against Chinese state-sponsored competition.

"Workers are going overseas, and a huge number are being poached by Chinese enterprises," Tsai is quoted by the New York Times as saying. "Many of our young people abroad can't find a way home."

The view is shared by many in Taiwan's opposition, who blame China for draining the island's workforce of much-needed talent.

"One thing we're concerned about is that as China grows, they want to recruit more people from key industries in Taiwan," says deputy minister Kao Shien-quey of Taiwan's National Development Council. "To develop flat screens, LEDs, LCDs and solar power they came and lured away people from Taiwan."

The Times reports that some 600,000 Taiwanese nationals spent more than half of the year overseas in 2013.  Some 75 percent of those people spent their time abroad in China.

"Beijing's strategy is to lure Taiwan deeper and deeper into China," Taiwanese editor Diane Ying told Foreign Policy Magazine recently. "But the Taiwan people don't like the way of life there." 

KMT's presidential nominee Eric Chu meanwhile argues that China remains important to Taiwan's economic future.  Cross-Strait trade saw a tremendous increase during Ma's presidency, from around $18 billion in 2000 to some $200 billion a year currently.  China now also buys about 40 percent of Taiwan's exports. 

But China's economic slowdown has hurt Taiwan.  The numbers are yet to be made public, but experts say Taiwan's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by a mere one percent in 2015.  This, some Taiwanese voters say, is why the KMT party is behind in the polls.

Ling Shi-how, 30, who sells construction supplies in Taipei, says KMT has neglected Taiwan's middle class and placed too much emphasis on the island's partnership with China.

"They only take care of corporations, and they want to rely on China," Ling says of the ruling party. "The truth is, for exports, we should look to Europe and the US."

The DPP presidential candidate Tsai agrees, saying at one point during her campaign that Taiwan should explore an economic strategy involving trade with a broader set of partners, including the US.

"We cannot simply be bound to China," Tsai said during a televised debate with her election rivals some weeks ago. "That's what worries us most about the past eight years, the sense that that's the only choice we have."

Most experts agree, however, that China is sure to limit Tsai's proposed trade strategy if the DPP does win the elections by as wide a margin as the polls have predicted. Not even a DPP-dominated legislature can stop China from exercising its de facto veto power on Taiwan's participation in international trade.

Noting that much of the focus during the election campaign was on socio-economic issues, Jonathan Sullivan of the University of Nottingham's School of Contemporary Studies says that, in fact, there is not much the DPP can change about the structure of Taiwan's economy without China's consent.

"These policies capture the zeitgeist," Sullivan says. "But I do not see the DPP being able to -- or promoting -- a radical overhaul of the economy." 

TagsTaiwan, China-Taiwan relations, Taiwan Presidential Elections 2016